US 10-year Treasury notes Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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Price change since each call, adjusted for long/short direction. Results calculated:
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17:20
Sep 15
Sep 15
One-and-done Fed lifts 10-year yields.
If the Fed signals a one-and-done hike rather than a proper tightening cycle, 10-year Treasury notes would head toward 5.25%-5.5% yields and markets would take it badly.
HIGH
23:22
Sep 01
Sep 01
Global long bonds face structural yield pressure.
Global long-end sovereign yields are hitting simultaneous multi-decade highs because of geopolitical oil risk, AI-driven corporate bond supply, monetary policy uncertainty, and fiscal stress in Japan and Europe; Kwon says high rates are becoming structural rather than temporary, so long-duration sovereign bonds face continued price pressure.
HIGH
15:05
Aug 26
Aug 26
Treasury buyback too small to matter.
The Treasury buyback program is too small to meaningfully lower long-end yields; achieving the 10-15 basis point impact of prior Fed QE would require expanding to hundreds of billions, so intervention is unlikely to move yields.
MED
11:19
Aug 24
Aug 24
US yields keep rising; short Treasuries.
Treasury yields are likely to keep rising because borrowing needs for the Treasury and economy are increasing, debt-management announcements are small and time-limited, fiscal policy is in Congress's hands, and the Fed will not intervene absent disorderly conditions.
HIGH
20:41
Jul 16
Jul 16
Intermediate Treasuries offer carry and steepening potential
The long end of the curve is stuck near fair value, with the 10-year around 4.5% and the long end closer to 5%, making the intermediate (10-year) part attractive for carry. There is also potential for the curve to modestly steepen as the one remaining Fed hike priced into markets gets priced out and the Fed eventually cuts in the first half of next year.
MED
22:04
Jun 15
Jun 15
Yields heading to 6%, bonds lower.
US 10-year Treasury yields are headed significantly higher and could reach 6% before year-end, driven by inflation, a hawkish Fed and rising rate expectations. Higher yields will pressure corporate balance sheets and the economy.
MED
About US 10-year Treasury notes Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks US 10-year Treasury notes across 3 sources: 1 bullish vs 5 bearish calls from 6 authors. Historical directional balance: -67% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 6 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 1 bearish. Latest voices: Dominic Konstam, Kwon Soon-woo, Tobin Marcus.